Pandemic isn’t over, Michigan officials warn, as COVID-19 numbers surge

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A Michigan Department of Health and Human Services billboard encourages residents to wear a mask and slow the spread of COVID-19 along Dort Highway on Monday, Nov. 23, 2020 on Flint's south side. (Jake May | MLive.com)

A year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Michigan residents are starting to resume to more normal life -- but recent increases in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations show the pandemic isn’t over yet, Michigan health officials say.

“So we are in a different place (than 2020), but we are not there yet, quite frankly,” Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, chief deputy director for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Service, said during a MDHHS press briefing Wednesday, March 17.

Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, laid out the concerning trendlines:

  • The daily average of new COVID-19 cases has doubled in the past three weeks, and the seven-day average is now almost 2,000 new cases a day.
  • The seven-day average positivity rate on coronavirus diagnostic tests now exceeds 5%, and it’s higher than 7% in the Kalamazoo region.
  • Almost 1,000 people are currently hospitalized for coronavirus, a 14% increase in the past week. It’s the third consecutive week of increases, and at the current pace, the state could hit 2,000 hospitalizations in five weeks.
  • The number of deaths continues to drop, but Lyon-Callo and others warned repeatedly that deaths are a lagging indicator and are likely to rise in upcoming weeks.

Michigan’s positive test rate and daily coronavirus cases continue to climb

Michigan is among 11 states seeing increases in COVID-19 transmission and the only state outside of Minnesota in the Upper Midwest seeing an uptick, Lyon-Callo said.

Perhaps the biggest driver of the increases are the emergence of the new COVID-19 variants, which are more contagious than the dominant strain of coronavirus, Callo-Lyon said. Michigan is one of the states with the highest number of identified cases of the B.1.1.7 strain that first emerged in the United Kingdom. That variant has been identified in 31 Michigan counties.

“One of the reasons we are concerned about the case increases is that we are seeing the increased spread of variants of concern in the United States, and we’re experiencing that in Michigan,” Lyon-Callo said.

“Just a reminder, this variant is more transmissible so someone who is infected of COVID-19 will transmit that virus more easily to to others,” she added.

Other factors driving the increases: The reopening of schools, and resumption of school sports and restaurant indoor dining; increases in travel and nonessential trips outside the house, and “COVID fatigue,” in which people are becoming less likely to adhere to guidelines on masks and social distancing, she said.

COVID case investigations are showing a rise in the number of close contacts that coronavirus patients might have infected, as well as fewer people who were quarantining at the time they were diagnosed with COVID. The latter indicates more community spread -- people are catching the virus without knowing how they were exposed.

“This is expected as we increase mobility,” Lyon-Callo said. “However, this will also increase the spread of disease, so less quarantining is taken very seriously.”

The importance of quarantining is especially key because of the more contagious variants, she said. “So one of the reasons we are highlighting that particularly today is because with a B.1.1.7 variant becoming more prevalent in the state, it’s even more important people are quarantining (after a possible exposure) so they are not passing on a more transmissible virus to others around them.”

In regards to schools, Lyon-Callo said the number of outbreaks related to schools -- particularly high schools -- has jumped up, but most of that involves extracurricular activities vs. exposure in the classroom.

“The classroom environment itself has not been a strong signal for outbreaks,” she said. “It tends to be more the activities associated with schools, including sports but not only sports.”

There was some positive news in Tuesday’s briefing: COVID case and deaths rates are declining among those age 70 and older, a likely reflection of the high vaccination rates for senior citizens. And since that age group has been a big driver of COVID hospitalizations and deaths in past surges, the current rise in case numbers is less likely to overwhelm hospitals or cause a big spike in deaths.

Asked if the rising numbers could result in another round of shutdowns or restrictions, MDHHS Director Elizabeth Hertel said that MDHHS is pushing people to double-down on strategies that will prevent that. That includes wearing masks and holding group activities outdoors whenever possible.

“It’s something that we talk about regularly as we look at what is occurring on the ground, and trying to balance that with the ability to still partake in a number of the events and activities that we all enjoy,” she said.

One reason to be positive, she said: “Vaccinations seem to be working.”

Khaldun agreed. “As we get more and more vaccines in the state and more people vaccinated, I don’t think we’re going to see the same kind of surge that we saw in 2020,” she said. “But there’s still a risk, especially with these various variants.

“We still have this ongoing problem,” Khaldun said, “but certainly promising the fact that we have the vaccine.”

Read more on MLive:

Michigan’s coronavirus numbers are going up, but will vaccinations blunt the impact?

COVID brides and industry professionals consider how the pandemic could change future weddings

COVID-19 pandemic still teaching Michigan schools lessons a year later

9 things we got totally wrong about COVID-19 a year ago

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