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Walking Through the New Debt Math
A few hours before I went to the floor this week, CBO dropped its new budget outlook. The short version is ugly. Over the last 12 months, your government has been borrowing roughly $74,000 every second. Interest alone will cost about $1.2 trillion this year. Social Security will be around $1.6 trillion. Medicare about $1.1 trillion. Medicaid and Obamacare subsidies close to $900 billion. Defense, the thing actually in the Constitution, is now fifth on the list.
Underneath that is a demographic problem no one here wants to talk about. In roughly 33 months, more than half of all federal spending will go to Americans 65 and older. We have about the same number of 18-year-olds as we did 20 years ago, but twice as many people 65 and up.
In about six and a half years, both the Medicare and Social Security trust funds hit empty. If Congress does nothing and we follow current law, Social Security checks get cut by about 24 percent. Senior poverty doubles. That is not a talking point. It is simple math.
There are ways to keep our promises without wrecking the bond market. The fastest lever is health care costs. Right now, Medicare Advantage is being paid about 20 to 25 percent more than traditional fee for service because of how the risk scores and bonus formulas work.
That is tens of billions a year for paperwork games instead of better health. I have a bill that would flip those incentives so plans make money by keeping people healthier, not by gaming the code book. CBO’s preliminary look says it could save around $1.8 trillion over ten years. That is the scale we need. Not slogans. Not “tax the rich” stickers. Real policy that makes the math work.
Honoring the women behind Childhelp
Today I sent a letter to the President urging him to award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Yvonne Fedderson, posthumously, and to Sara O’Meara for their lifetime of work on behalf of abused and neglected children through Childhelp. In 1959, they saw children who had been pushed to the margins and decided that was unacceptable. From that decision came a national leader in child abuse prevention, a 24/7 hotline, prevention programs, and residential care that have reached millions of children and families.
For me, this is personal. I was nearly aborted, and my birth mother changed her mind at the last moment and chose adoption. Because of that, I was given a family that protected me. Yvonne and Sara spent their lives trying to give that same chance to children who did not have anyone else standing between them and harm. Yvonne’s recent passing is a reminder that Childhelp did not appear by accident. It took decades of fundraising, advocacy, and hard work, and Sara continues that mission with the same focus on protecting the most vulnerable.
The Medal of Freedom is reserved for Americans whose service leaves a permanent mark on the country. By changing how we respond to child abuse and by building a refuge for children in danger, Yvonne Fedderson and Sara O’Meara have done exactly that.
Recognizing Amazing Constituents of AZ-01!
Last week a group of students from Brophy College Prep came by the office in Washington. They didn’t want a photo op.
I showed them the same boards I use on the House floor. We have about the same number of 18-year-olds in this country as we did 20 years ago. We have roughly twice as many people 65 and older. Their generation is smaller. The tab they are being handed is much larger.
If we want those kids to have a real shot at prosperity, we have to be honest about growth, health care costs, and the debt curve. I was grateful to see a group of young Arizonans who were willing to look straight at the math instead of pretending it is someone else’s problem.
U.S. Naval Academy Hosting and Admissions Forum
The U.S. Naval Academy Office of Admissions is hosting an Admissions Forum on February 28th from 1pm-3pm at the Civic Center Library Auditorium (3839 N Drinkwater Blvd, Scottsdale, AZ 85251).
What I'm Reading and Why it Matters
Saddled with Student Loan Debt? Lawmakers Are Too.
A recent NOTUS piece walked through how much student loan debt members of Congress still carry, and how that mirrors what millions of families are living with right now. It also shows how broken the current setup is.
About 43 million Americans owe student loans, with more than a million in default and many more falling behind. The data keep pointing to the same truth: graduation is the strongest predictor that loans get repaid.
If a university takes federal loan dollars, it should share the risk when students do not finish and cannot pay. That means real skin in the game for schools with poor outcomes, and an end to treating student loans as a quiet revenue stream for Washington. |