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The math on debt and Medicare's future
In my floor speech last week I walked through where the numbers actually are. Over the last twelve months Washington has borrowed about $83,720 every second. That is a record outside of COVID or a major disaster. And it is happening even though the discretionary side of the budget that Congress votes on is basically flat and now makes up only about a quarter of federal spending.
The real pressure comes from age and health. Today we have about the same number of 18 year olds as we had twenty years ago and about twice as many people who are 65 and older. In roughly 33 months more than half of all federal spending will go to those 65 and up. By 2036 my generation will receive about 52 percent of all federal outlays in pensions and health care while defense falls toward about 12 percent. When you run the numbers with a reasonable discount rate you find something uncomfortable. For my three year old you would need more than his entire lifetime income just to cover federal pensions Social Security Medicare and military retirement.
If we ignore this the trust funds do not politely wait. In about six and a half years the Social Security trust fund and the Medicare hospital trust fund both hit empty. Current law would mean about a 24 percent cut to Social Security checks and about an 11 percent cut in hospital payments. Our math says that would double senior poverty and double the number of baby boomers living on the street. Simply “raising the cap” on payroll taxes only covers a fraction of the shortfall. Borrowing to fill the gap is just another tax pushed onto a future generation. Last year for every dollar in taxes Washington took in it spent about $1.43. Even after some reforms this year the estimate is still well above a dollar thirty.
A big piece of the problem sits inside Medicare itself. Medicare Advantage now covers more than half of Medicare enrollees. The official reports show that when you adjust for risk Medicare Advantage is being paid well above basic fee for service. That extra premium shows up as higher costs for seniors on traditional Medicare and higher costs for the federal government. Our review of the data found that someone on traditional Medicare is effectively paying thousands of dollars more over a couple of years because of the way these payments are structured. Last year the overpayment portion alone was in the tens of billions of dollars. Over a decade that runs into the trillions. I have a bill that would put Medicare Advantage back to its original design. Plans would earn a profit by keeping their members healthier not by finding ways to game risk scores and ratings.
There is a better way forward than benefit cuts or tax slogans. Last Saturday in Scottsdale we held a Joint Economic Committee field hearing with some of the most creative health innovators I have met. One team is working on a multi cancer blood test that could cost around $150 and be used several times a year. Another company is using artificial intelligence to handle routine prescription renewals in Utah. We heard from firms building wearables so that your watch or sensor becomes a real time medical lab. Some of these devices already have approval as medical tools. If we modernize the rules so this kind of technology can be used at scale we can drive down health costs instead of just arguing over who pays the bill.
The math is hard but it is not hopeless. If we tell the truth about debt and demographics and at the same time lean into innovation we can protect Social Security and Medicare and keep this country solvent. That has to be the mission.
Pressing China to stop illegal vape exports
Last week I signed a bipartisan letter to the Treasury Secretary and our trade representative about illegal Chinese vapes. These are not niche products. They are flooding into the country, marketed to kids with candy flavors and toy packaging, and showing up near schools and military bases.
DOJ and DEA now tie this trade to foreign nationals, Mexican cartels, and money laundering tied to fentanyl. Some of these “smart vapes” can connect to a phone and potentially expose location and data. That is a public health risk and a national security risk at the same time.
Chinese law already says companies cannot ship e-cigarettes to countries where those products are illegal. Their state tobacco monopoly controls the industry and has the power to shut this down. Our message in the letter is simple. Any new trade talks with China must include a hard commitment from Beijing to enforce its own rules and stop these illegal exports at the source.
Full letter can be found here.
Tax season updates from the IRS
The IRS released its 2026 “Dirty Dozen” tax scams list. It warns about fake IRS emails and texts and AI phone calls that sound real and try to steal your information. It also flags bad tax tricks pushed on social media. If anyone claims to be the IRS and pressures you for money or personal data just hang up and go to IRS.gov yourself.
For tax year 2025 there is a new Schedule 1 A. This is how you claim the no tax on tips benefit and the no tax on overtime and car loan interest and the bigger deduction for seniors from the One Big Beautiful Bill. When you file make sure your software or preparer uses Schedule 1 A so you do not leave money on the table.
Service members and their families can file federal returns for free through MilTax on Military OneSource or IRS Free File. Both options cover online prep and e filing and direct deposit at no cost. Details are on IRS.gov.
Guidance for Americans in the Middle East
As of the morning of March 9 the State Department has updated its consular guidance for Americans in the Middle East. If you or a family member are in the region, please follow the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate and sign up for their security alerts.
You can enroll in STEP at step.state.gov to get security updates by email. You can also follow the “U.S. Department of State Security Updates for U.S. Citizens” channel on WhatsApp by downloading the app at whatsapp.com/download.
Americans who need consular help can call the 24 hour task force at +1 202 501 4444 from overseas or +1 888 407 4747 from the United States and Canada.
If you are trying to return home from Bahrain Israel Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, you can fill out the online form linked on travel.state.gov to receive information on possible U.S. government departure options as they become available. The same page lists country specific security alerts and travel advisories.
What I'm Reading and Why it Matters
How sensors and smart robots could transform the way Arizona mines critical minerals
Copper still sits at the center of Arizona’s economy. The industry supports about 60,000 jobs and more than $21 billion in activity each year.
Freeport McMoRan and ASU are working together to squeeze more copper out of every ton of rock by using sensors, robotics and AI to sort ore in real time. They are also updating training and mentoring in towns like Bagdad and Morenci so new workers stay on the job and move up.
That kind of productivity and workforce work is how Arizona keeps its lead in critical minerals.
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